Thursday, September 1, 2011

The Creation of a Lost Generation

One topic I hear very little about is the terrible situation that a lot of youth and young adults find themselves facing going forward from the Great Recession.

The fallout from the 2008 financial crises has effected the youth disproportionately, probably due to older people being forced to take more entry-level or low paying jobs.  Youth employment has fallen to a 50+ year low:


For decades, we have been told that the future is white-collar work, and the collapse of the construction industry adds even more credence to those claims.  Not surprisingly youth (with the means to do so) are entering college and university in larger numbers in the hopes that when they graduate their job prospects will be better.  In the UK, for instance:


BBC - University applications up 23% - Feb 2010
Applications to UK universities have soared by more than a fifth - increasing pressure on places for courses starting in the autumn. 
It is the fourth year running that full-time undergraduate applications have increased - with the rate of increase climbing higher. 
"There are some systemic changes affecting the figures but we could also conclude that the current economic situation is causing people to apply to higher education as a way of re-training to ready themselves for the job market once the economy picks up."



Similar increases can be found for Canadian universities, although US admissions gains seem to be more modest.  Could the massive increase in US tuition over the last 10 years have something to do with that? It certainly can't help while households are dealing with $6.3 trillion dollar loss in the value of their houses since 2006.


Are we creating a lost generation?  It's no secret that youth unemployment effects the prospects for lifetime earnings - not to mention the potential for social unrest.

Many observers believe the generation after the Baby Boomers - Generation X - will be the first generation with a lower standard of living than their parents:

'Generation Debt' is going deep into the red 
Young adults seen facing huge credit-card balances as incomes stagnate  
Many twenty- and thirtysomethings raised on MTV and InStyle magazine have tried to mimic the glamorous lives of the rich and famous through the use of credit cards. But as the 21st century has ushered in skyrocketing housing prices, stagnant income levels and five- or six-figure student loans to pay off — a seismic shift has occurred: A growing number of young adults are reassessing their lifestyles and mimicking the frugal habits of their Depression-era grandparents.
A college degree is mandatory for most entry-level professional jobs, but most of today’s job growth is in low-paying, low-skill industries like retail and food preparation.  That translates into a very bad time for twentysomethings to be entering the labor force, said Nissen. 
“The job market is expanding but 80 percent of these new jobs don’t require a college degree. So your choices are working at either Burger King or Wal-Mart where, obviously, the pay is not good," Nissen said. 
And with deep cuts to education and tax breaks aimed mainly older, wealthier Americans, government no longer has young adults’ back.  Many economic forecasters doubt that those under age 35 will be the first generation not to equal or surpass their parents’ standard of living.  That is a disturbing reality for a group that should be in its prime, looking toward marriage and their first home. Instead, they struggle to pay hefty student loans and credit card debt.
... 
Even though many elders look at Generation Xers' and Yers' financial attitudes with disdain , Draut said she is surprised by who feels most for this generation. “When I do radio interviews for the book, most of the sympathetic callers are from people over 65 who lived through the Depression. When they look at what young people are up against today, they feel a lot of empathy.”
Note that article is from back in the heady days of 2006.  While the cost of housing has become more affordable, now even those low-paying burger flipping jobs are even becoming harder and harder to find.  It doesn't matter what houses cost if you don't have a job.  All indications are that GenX won't be the last generation with a lower standard of living.

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